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☆ Fiscal rules revamp may threaten calm in euro zone's fragile bond markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Analysts believe Germany's budget crisis will mean tougher fiscal policy in the largest euro zone economy in 2024, which could add to pressure on less wealthy members of the bloc to keep a tighter grip on their finances. Italian 10-year bonds currently yield around 173 basis points more than German debt , 38 bps less than a year ago, while the gap between Portuguese and German yields has narrowed by 34 basis points. French bonds meanwhile yield 58 bps more than German, 5 bps more than a year ago. Analysts argued the German public may be unwilling to accept a tightening of domestic fiscal policy without a blanket approach across Europe - meaning a tougher scenario for the periphery. Bondholders are meanwhile banking on the European Central Bank cutting interest rates in a few months, which should support euro zone peripheral debt.

Persons: Giorgia Meloni, Olaf Scholz, Fabrizio Bensch, Ruben Segura, BofA's Segura, Cayuela, Felix Hubner, Massimiliano Maxia, Stefano Rebaudo, Catherine Evans Organizations: Italian, REUTERS, Germany, Union, Northern, European Commission, UBS, Analysts, European Central Bank, JPMorgan, ECB, Allianz Global Investors, bps, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, Italy, Cayuela, European, Greece, Spain, Europe

Blended finance see providers of public money - typically government aid departments, development finance institutions or charitable donors - agree to accept more risk in a fund to encourage private sector investors to join. The money raised through blended finance funds is a fraction of what's needed. The new 25-year SDG Loan Fund is structured so that FMO takes the first loss should the loans turn sour. Private investors, which include Allianz and Skandia, will be the last to lose money. But this loan fund structure ensured "everyone's interest is aligned," she said, noting that private investors can start getting their money back when loans begin amortising in a few years.

Persons: Tilman Blasshofer, FMO, That's, Nadia Nikolova, Nikolova, Nic Wessemius, FMO's, Wessemius, Tommy Reggiori Wilkes, Simon Jessop, Mark Potter Organizations: Allianz Global Investors, REUTERS, MacArthur Foundation, LONDON, Private, Allianz, Skandia, FMO, Reuters, concessional, Investment, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Dubai

☆ Forget Tesla. Portfolio manager names another way — and stock — to play the EV market
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Tesla is a hot favorite when it comes to investing in the electric vehicle market. Brian Arcese, portfolio manager at investment firm Foord Asset Management, said he has a "far less convicted view" in Tesla retaining its dominance than in his preferred investing route in the EV market. He told CNBC Pro Talks last week that he's taken two "slightly untraditional" approaches to investing in that space. He names one U.S. stock, Edison International , as one such U.S. regulated utility company to play the EV trend. But he says that within that space, he's focused on companies that are the lowest-cost producers.

Persons: Tesla, Brian Arcese, he's, Arcese, you've, CNBC's Tanvir Gill, — James Sullivan, Jenny Zeng, Sullivan, there's Organizations: Foord Asset Management, CNBC, Edison International, JPMorgan, Allianz Global Investors Locations: Tesla, Asia, INSEAD, Singapore, China, Korea, U.S

☆ CNBC Pro Talks goes on the road to find out how to invest for 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Cnbc.Com Staff | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

For the first time, CNBC Pro Talks is heading to a business school. Arcese is a portfolio manager on the Foord Global Equity fund and Foord SICAV - Foord International Fund, and has 20 years of experience in both developed and emerging markets, as well as long-only and long/short products. Sullivan joined JPMorgan in 2010 and has held hedge fund management and research roles in Asia since 1998. Learn more from our previous Pro Talks: Looking to invest long-term in Nvidia? Here's how to invest, say the prosFor the first time, CNBC Pro Talks is heading to a business school.

Persons: Tanvir Gill, Brian Arcese, James Sullivan, Jenny Zeng, Foord, Sullivan, Zeng, Morgan Stanley's Slimmon Organizations: CNBC, Foord Asset Management, Asia, JPMorgan, Allianz Global Investors, Foord Global Equity, Foord, Fund, Nvidia, Big Tech Locations: Asia, Singapore, Arcese

☆ Bank of England set to keep rates at 15-year high despite slowdown signs
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee is facing an inflation rate more than double that of the euro zone and almost twice the U.S. rate. It voted by only a narrow 5-4 margin in September to halt its run of increases in borrowing costs. But signs of a slowdown in much of the British economy have become clearer since then and some economists say a recession might already be under way. The central bank said in its last set of economic forecasts in August that inflation would only return to 2% in the second quarter of 2025. But Bailey and his MPC colleagues are likely to reiterate that they are ready to raise rates higher if needed.

Persons: BoE, Mike Riddell, Riddell, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, William Schomberg, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Allianz Global Investors, BoE, MPC, Conservative Party, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Bank of England set to hold rates again, but markets see no cuts on the horizon
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. "U.K. economic activity appears to have slowed further, the housing market is weaker, consumer spending is falling, and inflationary pressure is showing further signs of dissipating. U.K. inflation came in at 6.7% in September , unchanged from the previous month and considerably higher than in other G7 economies. "The only way that we can rationalise this is if U.K. inflation remains stuck at 3% or higher forever, and/or the U.K. economy avoids a meaningful recession," he said. The European Central Bank last week held rates steady at their current record high of 4%, ending a run of 10 straight hikes.

Persons: Mike Riddell, BoE, Swati Dhingra, Riddell, Abbas Khan, Haskel, Mann, Dhingra, Catherine Mann, Allianz's Riddell Organizations: Bank of England, Allianz Global Investors, P, MPC, Bank, Monetary, LONDON, Barclays, U.S . Federal, Treasury, European Central Bank Locations: City, London, Britain, Israel

☆ Allianz Global Investors: we like investment-grade corporate bonds in China despite slowing economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAllianz Global Investors: we like investment-grade corporate bonds in China despite slowing economyJenny Zeng of Allianz Global Investors says any pullback in markets are good investment opportunities to buy Asian investment-grade corporate bonds.

Persons: Jenny Zeng Organizations: Allianz Global Investors Locations: China

The company established the Allianz Global Diversified Private Debt Fund (AGDPDF) II in Luxembourg in mid-June, company filings show. Money managers are vying for a slice of the growing private credit market, which emerged in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and is currently estimated to have assets of $1.5 trillion. Private credit funds are increasingly competing with banks, including for financing large company buyouts. The fastest escalation in borrowing costs in decades has posed a test for private credit but so far defaults by borrowers have been limited. Rather than lending directly, the Allianz Global Diversified Private Debt Fund invests in other credit funds and also makes co-investments.

Persons: Michaela Rehle, Proskauer, Pablo Mayo, Elisa Martinuzzi, Jane Merriman Organizations: Allianz, REUTERS, Allianz Global Investors, Allianz Global, Debt Fund, Fund, Reuters, Pablo Mayo Cerqueiro, Thomson Locations: Unterfoehring, Munich, Luxembourg, London

☆ Bond traders prepare to brave 'painful' yield curve bets as rate hikes slow
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Those moves have put the focus back on "steepening trades" - bets that shorter-dated yields will fall relative to longer-dated yields. "Everyone is now re-looking at these curve trades," said Olivier De Larouziere, chief investment officer for global fixed income at BNP Paribas Asset Management. "I would expect that in the next quarter, more people will start positioning for a steepening of the yield curve." That's led to a rare situation where the bond yield curve is "inverted". TIMING IS EVERYTHINGThe market moves over the last week highlight the risk of curve trades.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Olivier De Larouziere, Fabio Bassi, That's, Alexandre Caminade, Anne Beaudu, Larouziere, JPMorgan's Bassi, Franck Dixmier, John Williams, Ostrum's Caminade, Harry Robertson, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, Bond, U.S, BNP, Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, JPMorgan, Treasury, Ostrum, ECB, Allianz Global Investors, Reuters Graphics, New York Fed, New York Times, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, Europe, New

☆ There are consolidation triggers apart from the U.S. debt downgrade, Allianz CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere are consolidation triggers apart from the U.S. debt downgrade, Allianz CIO saysVirginie Maisonneuve, global CIO of equity at Allianz Global Investors, discusses earnings season and the repercussions of Fitch Ratings' U.S. debt downgrade.

Persons: Virginie Maisonneuve, Fitch Organizations: Allianz, Allianz Global Investors

Euro zone interest rates have risen 400 basis points in the last year to 3.5%, their highest in 22 years, and are now close to peaking as headline inflation cools and the economy weakens. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates? "The ECB will hike again and anything else would be a major surprise," said RBC Capital Markets global macro strategist Peter Schaffrik. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ When does the ECB expect core inflation to fall? Euro zone business activity stalled in June as a manufacturing recession deepened and a previously resilient services sector barely grew.

Persons: Silvia Ardagna, Peter Schaffrik, Christine, Lagarde, Massimiliano Maxia, Reinhard Cluse, Ruben Segura, BofA, Philip Lane, BofA's Segura, Naomi Rovnick, Stefano Rebaudo, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Kripa Jayaram, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Barclays, ECB, Capital, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, U.S . Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Bank, Thomson Locations: Cayuela, Europe, London, Milan

☆ European Union agrees post-Brexit rules for hedge funds
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, July 20 (Reuters) - The European Union said on Thursday it has reached a deal on revising its rules for managers of hedge funds and other alternative investments, easing industry fears of a post-Brexit crackdown on managers in London. Representatives of EU states and the European Parliament reached the deal overnight to update the bloc's Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD) rules that cover investments in hedge funds, private equity, private debt funds and real estate funds. Under the agreement, European asset managers will have to disclose more details to regulators about their investments with private funds in the United States, Britain and other non-EU countries. But it stops short of toughening up "delegation" rules for managers outside the EU that pick assets for funds listed in the bloc. The agreement includes new rules on funds that issue new loans, including higher requirements to keep money aside to cope with liquidity demands in stressed markets.

Persons: Taggart Davis, Davis, Jiri Krol, AIMA, Deborah Zurkow, Nell Mackenzie, Huw Jones, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: European Union, European, Investment, European Commission, Collective Investment, Securities, EU, Alternative Investment Management Association, Alternative Credit Council, Allianz Global Investors, Thomson Locations: London ., United States, Britain, London, Luxembourg, Dublin, Europe

The latest drubbing in the world's biggest bond markets, which last year suffered a record rout, does not yet point to any dysfunction in the markets themselves, investors said. But in echoes of the volatile conditions seen during March's banking crisis, trading in euro zone benchmark German government bond futures were briefly interrupted on Thursday when bond yields spiked. U.S. and British 10-year yields were also set to end the week more than 20 bps higher , . ING said earlier on Friday that this week's data was strong enough to push yields higher even if jobs numbers interrupt the moves. "It won't be as bad as that, but higher rates and higher yields could lead to negative returns and pressure returns on equity markets."

Persons: Mike Riddell, Jan von Gerich, Mark Dowding, Gael Fichan, Fichan, BlueBay's Dowding, Yoruk Bahceli, Samuel Indyk, Harry Robertson, Hugh Lawson Organizations: U.S, Federal, Allianz Global Investors, Fed, of, European Central Bank, BlueBay Asset Management, Syz, ING, Global, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, Australia, British, Germany, Britain, U.S, of England

☆ Analysis: Bond markets reckon a central bank policy error is on the cards
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"We are positioned for a very big bond rally, and we think that risky assets are completely underestimating the risk of a recession or something nasty happening," he added. (.MERW0G1)An early sign that the bond outlook is improving came last week with data showing euro zone business growth stalled in June. In response, German bond yields, which move inversely to prices, posted their second biggest daily drop since March. But highlighting how hard economic data has become to read, higher-than-expected U.S. first quarter growth and German inflation sent yields surging on Thursday. Major central banks fighting a surge in inflation have collectively raised borrowing costs by over 3,750 bps since September 2021.

Persons: Jason Reed, Mike Riddell, Viraj Patel, Vanda's Patel, BoE, Urban, Jill Hirzel, Dhara Ranasinghe, Harry Robertson, Catherine Evans Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Bond, U.S, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, Vanda Research, Deutsche Bank, General Investment Management, Insight Investment, Thomson Locations: Washington, hawkish, Canada, Britain, Norway, Sintra, Germany, United States, U.S

The rapid rise in gilt yields has consequences for the wider economy. To some investors, gilts now increasingly look a bargain as 6% BoE interest rates appear unrealistic. Two-year gilt yields have risen by 1.1 percentage points this year, compared with a 0.3 percentage point increase for German two-year yields and 0.2 percentage points for U.S. Treasuries . Raising interest rates to 6% would "succeed in destroying demand" in the wider economy, he said. Ten-year gilt yields now pay an interest rate nearly 2 percentage points higher than the equivalent German government bond .

Persons: BoE, Liz, Britain's, Jim Leaviss, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, gilts, We've, Mike Riddell, Riddell, Moyeen, There's, Islam, Naomi Rovnick, David Milliken, Toby Chopra Organizations: Labour Party, Bank of England, Bank of, Italy, Reuters Graphics, Allianz Global Investors, U.S, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Bank of England, Britain, British, gilts

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market says the S&P 500 has another 45% downside as investors remain blind to signs that a recession is hurtling toward the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Yet, stock market investors remain bullish, he said. He's been warning of a significant stock market decline since late 2021,"People are ignoring all the lessons of history," Wolfenbarger told Insider on Friday. His bearish outlook stems from how high stock valuations are relative to 10-year Treasury yields. Wolfenbarger also has company in thinking that stock market investors aren't heeding the warnings of a coming downturn. Yet, the stock market doesn't seem to reflect this uncertainty, he said.

☆ Analysis: After extraordinary rally, bonds' fate now with bank stability and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Alongside that dash for safe havens was a rapid repricing of rate-hike bets as banking turmoil raised financial stability risks, fuelling the rally in government debt. But coming so soon after markets had positioned for bigger U.S. rate hikes to tame inflation, bonds swung wildly. March's sharp drop in two-year yields followed a 59 bps jump in February. Two-year Treasury yields are down 24 bps this quarter, their biggest quarterly drop since the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. The likes of JPMorgan, BofA and Morgan Stanley, expect Treasury yields to end 2023 lower; others such as Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas expect a rise.

☆ Banking turmoil means recession fears are creeping back
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Here's what some closely watched market indicators say about recession risks:1/ CRUNCH TIME? Central bankers are closely monitoring the potential for banking stress, on top of lending conditions that were already tightening, to trigger a credit crunch. European Central Bank boss Christine Lagarde has also said the market turmoil may help fight inflation. Reuters Graphics3/ BANK STOCK ROUTWorld shares down just 0.1% in March and still sitting on gains this year seem to signal little recession risk, but worries are mounting under the surface. Global bank stocks, which had outperformed the MSCI World Stock Index before the turmoil, are down nearly 15% this month (.dMIWO0BK00PUS).

"There have been a number of approaches, but so far without getting any response" from the government, the source added. But progress has been complicated by a two-year civil war that broke out in November 2020, killing thousands of people and displacing millions. The international bond only makes up a small part of the country's total external government debt, which stood at $27.4 billion in the third quarter of last year, according to World Bank data. International bondholders have not formed a private creditors committee for the extension proposal because Ethiopia has continued to service the bond normally, two of the sources added. Recent filings show that Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group and Allianz Global Investors U.S. LLC are some of the holders of the bond, according to EMAXX data.

They stressed that the reallocation would be gradual and not result in fire sales, with new money going largely into fixed income rather than alternative investments. Goldman Sachs' asset management arm is planning to significantly reduce its $59 billion of alternative investments. Credit rating agencies Moody's and S&P, which both give Allianz high marks, have pointed to the greater risk posed by comparatively illiquid alternative investments in Allianz's portfolio. Alternative investments come at a price, requiring Allianz and other insurers to set aside more capital to own them because they are less liquid than bonds. In its wake, Allianz has had to close down Allianz Global Investors in the United States in a serious blow to the company.

☆ Former Allianz Fund Manager Accuses Firm and Its Lawyers of Double-Crossing Him
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Dylan Tokar | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +5 min

In his brief, Mr. Tournant excerpted a slide containing photos of himself and two other former Allianz executives, which his lawyers likened to a most-wanted poster. Mr. Tournant was also represented by a third firm that wasn’t jointly retained by Allianz, according to his motion. The firms’ agreements required them to inform Mr. Tournant in the event that a conflict of interest arose, according to his motion. Allianz’s posture toward Mr. Tournant changed after Mr. Bond-Nelson broke ties with the firm’s defense team and began shifting blame to Mr. Tournant, according to his brief. The pivot was a direct result of the policies outlined in recent years by officials such as Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco, according to Mr. Tournant.

☆ These under-the-radar bank stocks are among Wall Street’s favorites as earnings season begins
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Several big banks will kick off earnings season for the sector on Friday, yet it's the smaller, under-the-radar names that are most loved by Wall Street. For instance, only 54% of analysts covering Bank of America say the stock is a buy, while 58% of those covering JPMorgan rate it a buy, according to FactSet. To find bank stocks expected to outperform this year, CNBC Pro screened for the names most loved by analysts. They also have at least 8 analysts covering them. About 80% of the analysts covering the stock give it a buy rating, including Piper Sandler's John Barnidge.

The amount of new public-sector debt investors will have to absorb in 2023 will be twice as much as the previous record a decade ago, BofA notes. As early as November, the ECB's bond market contact group cited the high amount of debt private investors would have to buy as the most frequently mentioned concern. JPMorgan, the leader for euro government debt sales, expects a fall. The biggest challenge for governments will be timing, Dutch debt office head Saskia van Dun told Reuters last week. They will also have to be careful when picking maturities to issue and compensate investors enough to buy the debt, investors said.

☆ European Central Bank set for 50 basis point rate hike on hopes that inflation has peaked
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Annette Weisbach | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Quantitative tightening, or QT, could see the ECB shrink its gigantic bond portfolio. "We expect the ECB to raise its policy rates by 50 bp at the December meeting," said Michael Schumacher, an ECB watcher with Natixis, in a recent research note. "We also expect an announcement of Quantitative Tightening next year, though the ECB is unlikely to provide a specific start date at this point." Another hot topic for the ECB's Governing Council, which concludes its meeting Thursday with a press conference, will, of course, be inflation and possible peak inflation. "While Inflation likely peaked in October, we see core inflation lingering above 5% until mid 2023 before trending lower," said Anatoli Annenkov at Societe Generale in a recent research note.

☆ Analysis: Investors warm to European corporate bonds after a brutal year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A net $3.62 billion flowed into BlackRock's exchange-traded products which track investment grade European corporate debt in the 30 days to November 17. This has buoyed government bond prices, pushing their yields down, and boosted riskier assets such as corporate bonds and stocks. The iBoxx euro corporate bond index (.IBBEU003D) has risen almost 4% since hitting an eight-year low in October, although it remains down 13% for the year. Goldman Sachs strategists recently told clients that one- to five-year European corporate bonds are "very attractive". They said they're more appealingly priced than U.S. corporate debt, with many investors overly pessimistic about the outlook for Europe's economy.

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